11 Mar 2005 07:02:48
boxedin
Playing the tote board

I've been watching the tote board for "smart money" wagering for quite
some time now at many different tracks and have come to following
conclusions:

(Smart money to me is money going down by those with inside information
or professionals that wager very large amounts).

It's very difficult to monitor at major tracks, such as Aqueduct. There
is so much being bet that even if smart money was dropped on horse, it
might never be noticed. Your 10-1 might end up being 8-1, or the 4-1
might only drop to 7/2. Variations of thousands of dollars appear all
the time, especially when it's getting close to post time. Trying to
figure out when an unusual amount has been placed on any particular
horse could drive you crazy.

The problem at smaller tracks is that everyone is aware that any hefty
amount being bet is going to be noticed, even to those that don't watch
for this angle. Consequently, if smart money is placed, it is done at
the last second, much too late for anyone watching to react.

Then there's the theory about finding a disproportionate amount being
bet in the place and show pools. The thought being that smart money is
usually on the nose; therefore, the place and show pools will be much
less. I have found that this can also be misleading. Sometimes horses
are great place and show type bets.

For instance, you have horse A who has run in the money in his last 4
starts but is moving up in class. Horse B wins 1 in 4 but is never 2nd
or 3rd. The smart money might be going on horse A because he is still
improving and has moved up in class. But the public is betting tons in
the place and show pools because he's always close and little on horse
B because he either wins or does nothing. Get my drift? Most often,
it's the horse's running style that dictates how much goes into the
place and show pools.

I have cashed in some tickets watching the board, but I have also
thrown many away where the board was screaming smart money only to have
the horse do nothing. The problem is that it's inconsitant. Even if you
have correctly identified smart money, it is not always right. Then
there's the problem of misjudging altogther, thinking that smart money
has been dropped on a horse when it is just public money or some rich
dude that doesn't have a clue what he's doing.

In the long run, I doubt you can be very profitable doing this on its
own. You're probably better off with good sound handicapping.

I would love to hear other thoughts on this.



11 Mar 2005 20:17:22
Ray Gordon
Re: Playing the tote board

> I've been watching the tote board for "smart money" wagering for quite
> some time now at many different tracks and have come to following
> conclusions:
>
> (Smart money to me is money going down by those with inside information
> or professionals that wager very large amounts).
>
> It's very difficult to monitor at major tracks, such as Aqueduct. There
> is so much being bet that even if smart money was dropped on horse, it
> might never be noticed. Your 10-1 might end up being 8-1, or the 4-1
> might only drop to 7/2. Variations of thousands of dollars appear all
> the time, especially when it's getting close to post time. Trying to
> figure out when an unusual amount has been placed on any particular
> horse could drive you crazy.
>
> The problem at smaller tracks is that everyone is aware that any hefty
> amount being bet is going to be noticed, even to those that don't watch
> for this angle. Consequently, if smart money is placed, it is done at
> the last second, much too late for anyone watching to react.
>
> Then there's the theory about finding a disproportionate amount being
> bet in the place and show pools. The thought being that smart money is
> usually on the nose; therefore, the place and show pools will be much
> less. I have found that this can also be misleading. Sometimes horses
> are great place and show type bets.
>
> For instance, you have horse A who has run in the money in his last 4
> starts but is moving up in class. Horse B wins 1 in 4 but is never 2nd
> or 3rd. The smart money might be going on horse A because he is still
> improving and has moved up in class. But the public is betting tons in
> the place and show pools because he's always close and little on horse
> B because he either wins or does nothing. Get my drift? Most often,
> it's the horse's running style that dictates how much goes into the
> place and show pools.
>
> I have cashed in some tickets watching the board, but I have also
> thrown many away where the board was screaming smart money only to have
> the horse do nothing. The problem is that it's inconsitant. Even if you
> have correctly identified smart money, it is not always right. Then
> there's the problem of misjudging altogther, thinking that smart money
> has been dropped on a horse when it is just public money or some rich
> dude that doesn't have a clue what he's doing.
>
> In the long run, I doubt you can be very profitable doing this on its
> own. You're probably better off with good sound handicapping.
>
> I would love to hear other thoughts on this.

Try my site: http://www.cybersheet.com/horsepix.htmand then look for the
free e-book, where I discuss tote-board theory in depth.

My favorite tote angle is simple: if a horse is double or triple his program
odds, watch out. I call that the "outcast."





11 Mar 2005 20:23:59
Danzig
Re: Playing the tote board

Brave fellow. doesn't work the way it used to
> In the long run, I doubt you can be very profitable doing this on its
> own. You're probably better off with good sound handicapping.
>
> I would love to hear other thoughts on this.
>


11 Mar 2005 22:17:27
fundoc
Re: Playing the tote board


"boxedin" <gordo401@hotmail.com > wrote in message
news:1110553368.133846.184630@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com...

> I've been watching the tote board for "smart money" wagering for quite
> some time now at many different tracks and have come to following
> conclusions:
>
> (Smart money to me is money going down by those with inside information
> or professionals that wager very large amounts).

<snip >

You're wasting your time. For the most part, there is no smart money. Most
people are not smart. Quite the opposite. Most people are stupid. Ergo, they
only have stupid money. Most of the money at the track is stupid money. It is
carried there by stupid people who think to themselves 'I can afford to lose XX
dollars at the track today' and then proceed to. That is the money you should be
paying attention to: the stupid money. Stupid money is plentiful and
ubiquitous. Whereas smart money is by definition rarely around.

Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you are sure to be
surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will tell you who the
imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the favorite there? That's where
the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.) Bet against
the imbeciles, bet against the stupid money. You are now the smart money. Go
figure.



* (The odds the favorite loses are in fact much higher than that in different
scenarios, ALW v CL, turf v dirt, etc. A guy who used to post here, Fred C Dobbs
I think, tracked such things.)




11 Mar 2005 23:49:24
F.H.
Re: Playing the tote board

fundoc wrote:
> "boxedin" <gordo401@hotmail.com> wrote in message

>>I've been watching the tote board for "smart money" wagering for quite
>>some time now at many different tracks and have come to following
>>conclusions:

>>(Smart money to me is money going down by those with inside information
>>or professionals that wager very large amounts).

> <snip>
>
> You're wasting your time. For the most part, there is no smart money. Most
> people are not smart. Quite the opposite. Most people are stupid. Ergo, they
> only have stupid money. Most of the money at the track is stupid money. It is
> carried there by stupid people who think to themselves 'I can afford to lose XX
> dollars at the track today' and then proceed to. That is the money you should be
> paying attention to: the stupid money. Stupid money is plentiful and
> ubiquitous. Whereas smart money is by definition rarely around.

Handicapping 101.


11 Mar 2005 23:52:10
F.H.
Re: Playing the tote board

fundoc wrote:
> (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.)

> * (The odds the favorite loses are in fact much higher than that in different
> scenarios, ALW v CL, turf v dirt, etc. A guy who used to post here, Fred C Dobbs
> I think, tracked such things.)

A very handy thing to be up on (IMO). Especially if you play exotics.


12 Mar 2005 10:08:28
G-Man
Re: Playing the tote board

fundoc wrote:
> "boxedin" <gordo401@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:1110553368.133846.184630@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com...


<<snip >>


>
> Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you are
> sure to be surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will
> tell you who the imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the
> favorite there? That's where the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %*
> that the favorite loses.) Bet against the imbeciles, bet against the
> stupid money. You are now the smart money. Go figure.
>

Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites doesn't work
either. There has to be some hard work done if you are betting before a race
is run.

Cheers,
G-Man




12 Mar 2005 13:35:43
Les Corbett
Re: Playing the tote board


"G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com > wrote in message
news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...
> fundoc wrote:
> > "boxedin" <gordo401@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> > news:1110553368.133846.184630@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com...
>
>
> <<snip>>
>
>
> >
> > Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you are
> > sure to be surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will
> > tell you who the imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the
> > favorite there? That's where the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %*
> > that the favorite loses.) Bet against the imbeciles, bet against the
> > stupid money. You are now the smart money. Go figure.
> >
>
> Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites doesn't
work
> either. There has to be some hard work done if you are betting before a
race
> is run.
>
> Cheers,
> G-Man


Too true G-Man. there are good favs and bad favs and it's amazing
just how bad some of them are with odds which nowhere near reflect
their chances of winning.
Even so, I am sure most sensible backers appreciate fundoc's point.
The world is full of punters who will never look further than the 1st or
sometimes 2nd best in betting.
The eye opener (pointed out to me by my dad when I was knee high)
is seen in the UK where we have lines of bookmakers on course.
Inevitably the price they shout out is for the fav. The first rule of
bookmaking is to get the money in for the fav : they want it backed.
As the old man said, if it's good for them it cannot be good for you to
back too many which, on paper and price, appear to be the best in
the race. I have plenty of friends who, after decades of doing their money,
still haven't learnt this.


Regards,

Les




12 Mar 2005 15:27:41
fundoc
Re: Playing the tote board


"G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com > wrote in message
news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...

> Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites doesn't work
> either. There has to be some hard work done if you are betting before a race
> is run.

Learn to read. Thanks.




12 Mar 2005 16:05:21
G-Man
Re: Playing the tote board

fundoc wrote:
> "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
> news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...
>
>> Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites
>> doesn't work either. There has to be some hard work done if you are
>> betting before a race is run.
>
> Learn to read. Thanks.

Your paragraph-

"""Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you are sure
to be
surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will tell you who the
imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the favorite there? That's
where
the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.) Bet
against
the imbeciles, bet against the stupid money. """

- stated that people should back against the favourites.

Please elucidate if you didn't mean that.

Cheers,
G-Man




12 Mar 2005 16:43:39
F.H.
Re: Playing the tote board

G-Man wrote:
> fundoc wrote:
>
>>"G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
>>news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...
>>
>>
>>>Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites
>>>doesn't work either. There has to be some hard work done if you are
>>>betting before a race is run.
>>
>>Learn to read. Thanks.
>
>
> Your paragraph-
>
> """Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you are sure
> to be
> surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will tell you who the
> imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the favorite there? That's
> where
> the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.) Bet
> against
> the imbeciles, bet against the stupid money. """
>
> - stated that people should back against the favourites.
>
> Please elucidate if you didn't mean that.
>
> Cheers,
> G-Man
>
>
LOL, I think we were expected to note the sarcasm and that the value in
betting is in going against the public.


12 Mar 2005 12:25:27
Re: Playing the tote board

Agree with fundoc. Almost. Large bets in the last 3 minuets often
loose. I don't think it is "smart Money" but syndicate money. Groups
betting as one. They have thousands to bet and THEY wait for the
socalled "Smart Money" to show up on the board. The exception is first
time starters. Example: an ML 8-1 first time starter is 5-2, 1st or 2nd
choice in the win pool BUT 5th or 6th choice in the show pool. Check
board for these about 10 minuets to post. The betters will usually see
the same thing you see and bet the 5-2 horse in the show pool to get it
back in line with the win pool. Insider money doesn't go in the show
pool.



13 Mar 2005 01:58:44
F.H.
Re: Playing the tote board

wolf@provide.net wrote:
> Agree with fundoc. Almost. Large bets in the last 3 minuets often
> loose. I don't think it is "smart Money" but syndicate money. Groups
> betting as one. They have thousands to bet and THEY wait for the
> socalled "Smart Money" to show up on the board. The exception is first
> time starters. Example: an ML 8-1 first time starter is 5-2, 1st or 2nd
> choice in the win pool BUT 5th or 6th choice in the show pool. Check
> board for these about 10 minuets to post. The betters will usually see
> the same thing you see and bet the 5-2 horse in the show pool to get it
> back in line with the win pool. Insider money doesn't go in the show
> pool.

I recall a while back reading about guys who would attempt to screw up
the late money followers by betting heavy in the last few minutes, then
in the last seconds switching to another horse. Is that illegal now?
Monitored closely?

But, there is useful information there I think if you know how to look
for it and know particular stable patterns of betting. I recall once at
Santa Anita standing with a bunch of friends and none of us could get a
handle on this particular race. It was a nine horse field and there
were three horses vying for favorite, bouncing around between 9/5 and
8/5. About 5 minutes before post I noticed a horse who was 15-1 on the
morning line, and was ridden by a jock the public doesn't bet sitting at
6-1. I called attention to it and we all dove into the form and various
newspapers. No one had it picked anywhere near the top but it was
coming off a layoff, had some good past numbers, good recent work times
and a competent trainer.

We all ran for the windows and dove in. Won like a good thing.




12 Mar 2005 21:34:15
spOOkie
Re: Playing the tote board



> wolf@provide.net wrote:
Insider money doesn't go in the show
>> pool.


Used to be a guy in the New England area that bet $10,000.00 to show on
what he believed to be a sure thing creating some nice minus pools. The
tracks (suffolk, Foxboro) enjoyed him as it gave them some free
publicity. He did this a number of times with success
He was good for a while until one day a sure thing ran up the track.
Great show prices. He stopped after losing a couple.



13 Mar 2005 05:34:45
Re: Playing the tote board

Insider or Bridgejumper? Sounds like a Bridge jumper to me. Not much
of a future for these. Always Loose their LAST race!!



13 Mar 2005 15:10:21
fundoc
Re: Playing the tote board


"G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com > wrote in message
news:39gia4F5tb811U1@individual.net...
> fundoc wrote:
> > "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
> > news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...
> >
> >> Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites
> >> doesn't work either. There has to be some hard work done if you are
> >> betting before a race is run.
> >
> > Learn to read. Thanks.
>
> Your paragraph-
>
> """Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you are sure
> to be
> surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will tell you who the
> imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the favorite there? That's
> where
> the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.) Bet
> against
> the imbeciles, bet against the stupid money. """
>
> - stated that people should back against the favourites.
>
> Please elucidate if you didn't mean that.

The original post was about reading the tote board for hidden signals. My point
was that the poster's ignoring the most obvious and important tote information,
because many or most favorites, whether deserving of favoritism or not, are
underlays (i.e., they're being chased by stupid money), meaning that there's
overlays in the field, which is where the real "smart money" goes. Nothing very
controvesial there, handicapping 101 someone called it, and yet: "sounds great
in theory ... unfortunately ..." What's unfortunate is that you read things into
it that just aren't there, including some silly (and here I nearly said
"eurotrash make money betting bet on the loser," thank doG cooler heads
prevailed) wager that's not in available in the US. Coupled with your epiphanic
closer -- "There has to be some hard work done if you are betting," well golly
gee, you mean I should handicap rather than throw darts at the newspaper, no
kidding, thanks for the insight -- led me to believe thast you're stupid or
illiterate. But then I am an intemperate and uncharitable person, you shouldn't
take it personally, but sometimes I just can't help myself. Cheers.




13 Mar 2005 15:52:36
G-Man
Re: Playing the tote board

fundoc wrote:
> "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
> news:39gia4F5tb811U1@individual.net...
>> fundoc wrote:
>>> "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
>>> news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...
>>>
>>>> Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites
>>>> doesn't work either. There has to be some hard work done if you are
>>>> betting before a race is run.
>>>
>>> Learn to read. Thanks.
>>
>> Your paragraph-
>>
>> """Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you
>> are sure to be
>> surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will tell you
>> who the imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the favorite
>> there? That's where
>> the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.)
>> Bet against
>> the imbeciles, bet against the stupid money. """
>>
>> - stated that people should back against the favourites.
>>
>> Please elucidate if you didn't mean that.
>
> The original post was about reading the tote board for hidden
> signals. My point was that the poster's ignoring the most obvious and
> important tote information, because many or most favorites, whether
> deserving of favoritism or not, are underlays (i.e., they're being
> chased by stupid money), meaning that there's overlays in the field,
> which is where the real "smart money" goes. Nothing very controvesial
> there, handicapping 101 someone called it, and yet: "sounds great in
> theory ... unfortunately ..." What's unfortunate is that you read
> things into it that just aren't there, including some silly (and here
> I nearly said "eurotrash make money betting bet on the loser," thank
> doG cooler heads prevailed) wager that's not in available in the US.
> Coupled with your epiphanic closer -- "There has to be some hard work
> done if you are betting," well golly gee, you mean I should handicap
> rather than throw darts at the newspaper, no kidding, thanks for the
> insight --

No problem - glad I could help.


> led me to believe thast you're stupid or illiterate.

I believe that shows you to be either or both of those.


Cheers,
G-Man




13 Mar 2005 16:59:01
fundoc
Re: Playing the tote board


"G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com > wrote in message
news:39j611F62mp16U1@individual.net...
> fundoc wrote:
> > "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
> > news:39gia4F5tb811U1@individual.net...
> >> fundoc wrote:
> >>> "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
> >>> news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...
> >>>
> >>>> Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites
> >>>> doesn't work either. There has to be some hard work done if you are
> >>>> betting before a race is run.
> >>>
> >>> Learn to read. Thanks.
> >>
> >> Your paragraph-
> >>
> >> """Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you
> >> are sure to be
> >> surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will tell you
> >> who the imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the favorite
> >> there? That's where
> >> the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.)
> >> Bet against
> >> the imbeciles, bet against the stupid money. """
> >>
> >> - stated that people should back against the favourites.
> >>
> >> Please elucidate if you didn't mean that.
> >
> > The original post was about reading the tote board for hidden
> > signals. My point was that the poster's ignoring the most obvious and
> > important tote information, because many or most favorites, whether
> > deserving of favoritism or not, are underlays (i.e., they're being
> > chased by stupid money), meaning that there's overlays in the field,
> > which is where the real "smart money" goes. Nothing very controvesial
> > there, handicapping 101 someone called it, and yet: "sounds great in
> > theory ... unfortunately ..." What's unfortunate is that you read
> > things into it that just aren't there, including some silly (and here
> > I nearly said "eurotrash make money betting bet on the loser," thank
> > doG cooler heads prevailed) wager that's not in available in the US.
> > Coupled with your epiphanic closer -- "There has to be some hard work
> > done if you are betting," well golly gee, you mean I should handicap
> > rather than throw darts at the newspaper, no kidding, thanks for the
> > insight --
>
> No problem - glad I could help.

http://tinyurl.com/4zff7. HTH.



> > led me to believe thast you're stupid or illiterate.
>
> I believe that shows you to be either or both of those.

IKYABWAZZzzzzzzzzz








13 Mar 2005 17:18:21
G-Man
Re: Playing the tote board

fundoc wrote:
> "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
> news:39j611F62mp16U1@individual.net...
>> fundoc wrote:
>>> "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
>>> news:39gia4F5tb811U1@individual.net...
>>>> fundoc wrote:
>>>>> "G-Man" <originalgman@btclick.com> wrote in message
>>>>> news:39ftcvF5ufajcU1@individual.net...
>>>>>
>>>>>> Sounds great in theory, fundoc. Unfortunately laying favourites
>>>>>> doesn't work either. There has to be some hard work done if you
>>>>>> are betting before a race is run.
>>>>>
>>>>> Learn to read. Thanks.
>>>>
>>>> Your paragraph-
>>>>
>>>> """Here is how to play the tote board. Go to the track, where you
>>>> are sure to be
>>>> surrounded by imbeciles. Look at the tote board; it will tell you
>>>> who the imbeciles think is going to win the race. See the favorite
>>>> there? That's where
>>>> the stupid money is. (The odds are 70 %* that the favorite loses.)
>>>> Bet against
>>>> the imbeciles, bet against the stupid money. """
>>>>
>>>> - stated that people should back against the favourites.
>>>>
>>>> Please elucidate if you didn't mean that.
>>>
>>> The original post was about reading the tote board for hidden
>>> signals. My point was that the poster's ignoring the most obvious
>>> and important tote information, because many or most favorites,
>>> whether deserving of favoritism or not, are underlays (i.e.,
>>> they're being chased by stupid money), meaning that there's
>>> overlays in the field, which is where the real "smart money" goes.
>>> Nothing very controvesial there, handicapping 101 someone called
>>> it, and yet: "sounds great in theory ... unfortunately ..." What's
>>> unfortunate is that you read things into it that just aren't there,
>>> including some silly (and here I nearly said "eurotrash make money
>>> betting bet on the loser," thank doG cooler heads prevailed) wager
>>> that's not in available in the US. Coupled with your epiphanic
>>> closer -- "There has to be some hard work done if you are betting,"
>>> well golly gee, you mean I should handicap rather than throw darts
>>> at the newspaper, no kidding, thanks for the insight --
>>
>> No problem - glad I could help.
>
> http://tinyurl.com/4zff7. HTH.

Copy it here and I'll take a look.




>
>
>
>>> led me to believe thast you're stupid or illiterate.
>>
>> I believe that shows you to be either or both of those.
>

........................... as does your comment """ Nothing very
controvesial there .........."""

Have a nice day.

Cheers,
G-Man