27 Oct 2003 13:00:16
winzalot
10Mnr10-26-03

xacta
5 -4

tri
5 -4 -2
5 -4 -6
5 -4 -3

super
5 -4 -2 -6
5 -4 -2 -3
5 -4 -2 -8
5 -4 -2 -1
5 -4 -6 -2
5 -4 -6 -3
5 -4 -6 -8
5 -4 -6 -1
5 -4 -3 -2
5 -4 -3 -6
5 -4 -3 -8
5 -4 -3 -1


The morning line favorite appears to be extremely vulnerable here. Although
quick on the front end in his last race, a winning effort at 5 furlongs, his
5th furlong went in 13.2 seconds. This 13.2 internal fraction was
significantly slower than the 5th furlong of at least 2 other entries here
that RAN FURTHER THAN 5 FURLONGS in their last outings. The 6th and last
furlong of one of them, Unbridled Guy (who went the 6f in 1:13.3) went in
13.5 (only .3 slower than the 5th furlong of today's probable favorite)
while running 7 wide!

Taken alone this observation may not set Unbridled Guy apart from two or
three other contenders here. However, a closer inspection of the internal
fractions in Guy's previous race appear to show he is improving in form, and
very well could close in the stretch tonight for a big price. He must break
well, however. Unfortunately Brinkley, a weak jockey to begin with, is
stronger in route races than he is in sprints.

What seals the deal for Unbridled Guy is the morning line odds of 15-1.


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27 Oct 2003 11:41:06
Thomas Byers
Re: 10Mnr10-26-03

It's obvious you have given more than a bit of thought to that
race!...however, and forevermore to your credit, you have the winning
numbers among your tri selections, and have given many horses a chance
to be in it, and still lost a bundle here. This I fear is the
downfall of the exotic wager and will ruin most players if persisted
with for a long enough period of time!

Also, not to ' beat a dead horse ' here, but you had mentioned the
jockey negatives as well. Although this was your opinion only(re:
Jockey) you failed to use your own judgement. That's a no-no.
Perhaps if you did bet this race you gave some other horse (#4 comes
to mind here) a chance to win it all, and maybe you shuffled #5 all
the way out of the tri in some of your wagers?

Ending up here by saying I really appreciated an analysis of the
horse's chances. Not having access to the form of this one I cannot
argue any part of your observations of his chances. Also it would be
real real important to see those who he competed against, for
comparison purposes of course.

senortout,
who played all day BREEDERS Cup Day, Bet all the wrong longshots, and
still cleared $0.40 on the day.
ps I'm a place bettor. (NO Guts)














"winzalot" <[email protected] > wrote in message news:<AF8nb.38030$%[email protected]>...
> xacta
> 5 -4
>
> tri
> 5 -4 -2
> 5 -4 -6
> 5 -4 -3
>
> super
> 5 -4 -2 -6
> 5 -4 -2 -3
> 5 -4 -2 -8
> 5 -4 -2 -1
> 5 -4 -6 -2
> 5 -4 -6 -3
> 5 -4 -6 -8
> 5 -4 -6 -1
> 5 -4 -3 -2
> 5 -4 -3 -6
> 5 -4 -3 -8
> 5 -4 -3 -1
>
>
> The morning line favorite appears to be extremely vulnerable here. Although
> quick on the front end in his last race, a winning effort at 5 furlongs, his
> 5th furlong went in 13.2 seconds. This 13.2 internal fraction was
> significantly slower than the 5th furlong of at least 2 other entries here
> that RAN FURTHER THAN 5 FURLONGS in their last outings. The 6th and last
> furlong of one of them, Unbridled Guy (who went the 6f in 1:13.3) went in
> 13.5 (only .3 slower than the 5th furlong of today's probable favorite)
> while running 7 wide!
>
> Taken alone this observation may not set Unbridled Guy apart from two or
> three other contenders here. However, a closer inspection of the internal
> fractions in Guy's previous race appear to show he is improving in form, and
> very well could close in the stretch tonight for a big price. He must break
> well, however. Unfortunately Brinkley, a weak jockey to begin with, is
> stronger in route races than he is in sprints.
>
> What seals the deal for Unbridled Guy is the morning line odds of 15-1.
>
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> Version: 6.0.528 / Virus Database: 324 - Release Date: 10/16/2003


03 Nov 2003 03:02:34
winzalot
Re: 10Mnr10-26-03


Thanks buddy. Being a relative novice, I welcome any feedback. I am about
to post tonight's Mnr selection, as I do every Sunday.

Good luck.


"Thomas Byers" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:[email protected]
> It's obvious you have given more than a bit of thought to that
> race!...however, and forevermore to your credit, you have the winning
> numbers among your tri selections, and have given many horses a chance
> to be in it, and still lost a bundle here. This I fear is the
> downfall of the exotic wager and will ruin most players if persisted
> with for a long enough period of time!
>
> Also, not to ' beat a dead horse ' here, but you had mentioned the
> jockey negatives as well. Although this was your opinion only(re:
> Jockey) you failed to use your own judgement. That's a no-no.
> Perhaps if you did bet this race you gave some other horse (#4 comes
> to mind here) a chance to win it all, and maybe you shuffled #5 all
> the way out of the tri in some of your wagers?
>
> Ending up here by saying I really appreciated an analysis of the
> horse's chances. Not having access to the form of this one I cannot
> argue any part of your observations of his chances. Also it would be
> real real important to see those who he competed against, for
> comparison purposes of course.
>
> senortout,
> who played all day BREEDERS Cup Day, Bet all the wrong longshots, and
> still cleared $0.40 on the day.
> ps I'm a place bettor. (NO Guts)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> "winzalot" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:<AF8nb.38030$%[email protected] >...
> > xacta
> > 5 -4
> >
> > tri
> > 5 -4 -2
> > 5 -4 -6
> > 5 -4 -3
> >
> > super
> > 5 -4 -2 -6
> > 5 -4 -2 -3
> > 5 -4 -2 -8
> > 5 -4 -2 -1
> > 5 -4 -6 -2
> > 5 -4 -6 -3
> > 5 -4 -6 -8
> > 5 -4 -6 -1
> > 5 -4 -3 -2
> > 5 -4 -3 -6
> > 5 -4 -3 -8
> > 5 -4 -3 -1
> >
> >
> > The morning line favorite appears to be extremely vulnerable here.
Although
> > quick on the front end in his last race, a winning effort at 5 furlongs,
his
> > 5th furlong went in 13.2 seconds. This 13.2 internal fraction was
> > significantly slower than the 5th furlong of at least 2 other entries
here
> > that RAN FURTHER THAN 5 FURLONGS in their last outings. The 6th and last
> > furlong of one of them, Unbridled Guy (who went the 6f in 1:13.3) went
in
> > 13.5 (only .3 slower than the 5th furlong of today's probable favorite)
> > while running 7 wide!
> >
> > Taken alone this observation may not set Unbridled Guy apart from two or
> > three other contenders here. However, a closer inspection of the
internal
> > fractions in Guy's previous race appear to show he is improving in form,
and
> > very well could close in the stretch tonight for a big price. He must
break
> > well, however. Unfortunately Brinkley, a weak jockey to begin with, is
> > stronger in route races than he is in sprints.
> >
> > What seals the deal for Unbridled Guy is the morning line odds of 15-1.
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.528 / Virus Database: 324 - Release Date: 10/16/2003


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