23 Dec 2005 17:39:32
Steve L
Analysis of stupid Key Horse Picks

I have been getting sick and tired of reading the spam everyday about these
stupid Key Horse Picks from Kojim. Most of the time the payoffs are so low
that you wonder if a monkey is picking them. Anyone can pick the odds on
favorite. Well, I decided to do a little homework on these picks to prove
they are a waste of your hard earned money. Even if they were all free, you
would certainly lose in the short term as well as the long term.
Let's look at his website briefly.

Look at the Friday Dec 16, 2005 results for Hollywood's 3rd race. How can
he take credit ( in yellow highlight) for the exacta and quinella payoffs
when none of his picks finished in the exacta or quinella? Sorry Kojim, you
can't fool us.

Same thing for Friday Dec 9 in Hollywood's 8th where his pick finished 4th
and he took credit for the exacta, quijnella AND trifecta! Again, we aren't
fools Kojim.

Thursday Dec 8 in Aqueduct's 3rd, he did the same thing again. He took
credit for a $7.30 exacta when his pick finished 3rd. A $7.30 exacta is
nothing to brag about Kojim. And neither is a $10.40 trifecta, LOL. Who on
earth pays for these picks anyway?!

The very next race at Aqueduct he did the same thing and took credit for the
exact and quinella when his guesses--err, I mean picks, finished 3rd and
4th. Why highlite the results when you didn't pick it Kojim? There are
certainly more from previos results, but you get the idea.

Let's move onward to the cost of these picks. I'll use just one example to
show you need the biggest bankroll of anyone at the track to play his Key
Horse in all the exotics as he recommends. On Dec 22, in Turf Paradise's 7th
race, the key picks were the 6 and 11 out of 11 horses. Why does every race
have several 'key' picks anyway Kojim? If you key the 6 on top of the
exacta, it costs $20 for a $2 ticket and $20 more to key it on the bottom.
Same cost when keying the 11 on top and bottom of the exacta. Cost of keying
these 2 horses in the exacta is $80 and exacta pays $27.40. Wow. For the
trifecta, keying the 6 and 11 in all 3 spots costs $1080 for a $2 bet in an
11 horse field . You paid $1080 for your tri tickets and got back $148.40
for a $2 tri. Wow, again. If you're thinking to key the horses where the 6
and 11 will both finish in the money, then the ticket will cost $108,still a
lot. The price of the super would be cost prohibitive. I won't even bother
to figure it out.

Today, Dec 23, the key horse pick at Turfway Park's 12th is the #2 Aerial
Command. Very quickly here, the cost to key this horse in the exacta in the
14 horse field would be $52 for a $2 bet. He is the 2nd morning line choice.
The cost for the tri would be $936 for a $2 bet(the horse need to be used in
all 3 positions and each position costs $312).
So you see, if you bet all of Kojim's Key Picks, you will be in the
poorhouse very quickly. Also , you would need a HUGE bankroll. And God help
you if you lose 4 or 5 races in a row, especially when he is Key picking 2-1
and 3-1 and 5-2 horses most of the time. No more spam in our group Kojim. I
welcome any comments. This oughtta be fun.

Steve




24 Dec 2005 03:51:32
olrailbird
Re: Analysis of stupid Key Horse Picks

Steve,

A monkey does not pick just favorites.

A simian slings his shit at the DRF and bets
whatever it sticks to. Kojim must be doing
something *right* to pick many favorites.

In my mind, the ape represents randomness...

If you want to use a crappy animal for
crappy picks, please use a bird like fundoc.

--
Good Luck,
olrailbird
www.stevenberry.com