29 Oct 2003 03:15:11
Fager
BC Ramblings

Some comments on the 2003 BC:

Congrats to Sam for the contest win, and more impressively, picking the
sprint exacta. Also, Beyer nailed the sprint winner. It's been a long time
between drinks in major races for Andy.

How much does post position count for in the BC? Last year at Arlington,
outside PP's exceeded expectatations. Saturday, Halfbridled got the job done
from post 14, and Six Perfections from post 12 on the turf. Considering all
the attention the posts received, it may be one of the more overrated
handicapping factors.

What possessed the public to make Peace Rules the Mile favorite at 3-1? A 3
year old that had not been on the turf this year, he would finish last.

Did Mandella's big day elevate him to Eclipse award consideration?

And I'll toot my own horn a little with a couple pre-race comments -

"Cuvee figures to be a solid fave, but he's east-to-west and never gone 2
turns. That's enough vulnerabilty for me. I'm going to reach a little and
take one of Mandella's 3 - recent maiden winner Action This Day. He's got a
win going 2 turns over the track and has been traing well."

"Drysdale has a legit shot in each turf race. He and Mandella could be
sitting on huge days, IMO."

I handicapped the card of horses for a week and got back nothing for my
effort. I handicapped the trainers and caught the Juvy exacta (Mandella over
Mandella for $376) and the last pick 3 (Mandella's 3 in the Juvy, Mandella
and Drysdale in the Turf, Mandella in the Classic, $1,966 for a buck).

Fager





29 Oct 2003 01:44:55
lsj7
Re: BC Ramblings

Fager wrote:
> Some comments on the 2003 BC:
>
> Congrats to Sam for the contest win, and more impressively, picking
> the sprint exacta. Also, Beyer nailed the sprint winner. It's been a
> long time between drinks in major races for Andy.

Sampiper did a great job in picking the exacta. Beyer was due a good one,
as you say. Several in this newsgroup and the others down the hall did have
the Sprint winner. In my case, I generally do pretty well in the sprint and
usually cash a big one. This year was no exception. The first race of the
card had what I thought was blistering fractions (21 and change first
call-and I was not pleased) and the track played really fast all day long
IMHO. I plotted acceleration and the graph produced Midas Eyes as the
logical pick. Cajun Beat barely earned a spot and any respect on the graph.
But after looking at his pedigree I was not so certain that acceleration
scores would hold and so I put both of them in a win place box just to
cover my ass. As it turned out I made the correct decision. I did not play
each race, but I did play the distaff and loaded up on it and lost my ass.
After looking back to see why I misjudged this race-I discovered I just flat
out over-looked the pedigree of Adoration. I think I did this because I
went into the race with my mind made up without really doing my homework.
So much for "wishful handicapping". They won't win just because you want
them to. I guess I forgot that. My bad. I also played Medaglia D'Oro for
a nice place bet and he came through for me. I played some pick 3's and the
pick6 but did not cash. I was betting Johar but at the final click of the
mouse I changed my mind--too bad for me. I also was placing a 40 place bet
on Elloluv but changed my mind before the final click of my mouse. My bad.
But is was still a good day after Cajun Beat did his thing.


>
> How much does post position count for in the BC? Last year at
> Arlington, outside PP's exceeded expectatations. Saturday,
> Halfbridled got the job done from post 14, and Six Perfections from
> post 12 on the turf. Considering all the attention the posts
> received, it may be one of the more overrated handicapping factors.
>
> What possessed the public to make Peace Rules the Mile favorite at
> 3-1? A 3 year old that had not been on the turf this year, he would
> finish last.

I agree- I could not bet anything on his chances.




>
> Did Mandella's big day elevate him to Eclipse award consideration?
>
> And I'll toot my own horn a little with a couple pre-race comments -
>
> "Cuvee figures to be a solid fave, but he's east-to-west and never
> gone 2 turns. That's enough vulnerabilty for me. I'm going to reach a
> little and take one of Mandella's 3 - recent maiden winner Action
> This Day. He's got a win going 2 turns over the track and has been
> traing well."
>
> "Drysdale has a legit shot in each turf race. He and Mandella could be
> sitting on huge days, IMO."
>
> I handicapped the card of horses for a week and got back nothing for
> my effort. I handicapped the trainers and caught the Juvy exacta
> (Mandella over Mandella for $376) and the last pick 3 (Mandella's 3
> in the Juvy, Mandella and Drysdale in the Turf, Mandella in the
> Classic, $1,966 for a buck).
>
> Fager

I studied long and studied wrong and that turned a very great day into just
a good day.

--
lsj7

It may be true that you can't fool all the people all the time, but you
can fool enough of them to rule a large country.
________will durant