23 Sep 2005 08:29:52
Key Horse Picks: Friday September 23 2005

Good morning, everyone --

I have five picks in three races today, all at Belmont. You can see all
of these picks at:


To see them, just register at:


My Free Pick for today:

Belmont 8th Race 4:40pm US Eastern Time

Reel Legend #3 (ML 4-1) Trainer James Jerkens brings this 3-year-old
gelding back after a seven-week layoff. In his last three races, Reel
Legend has had troubled trips. In the July 10 Lexington Handicap, he
was bumped at the start and had traffic problems throughout; he
finished second by 3/4 length. In that race, he recorded a 91 Beyer,
his lifetime best. In his last race, the Grade II Hall of Fame, he had
a wide trip after being taken back at the start from the very difficult
9 post position in that 1 1/8 mile race on the turf. In four lifetime
turf starts, he has recorded three seconds. His overall record is seven
career starts with five in-money-finishes.

Even if this race comes off the turf, I still think Reel Legend can
win. The last time he ran on a muddy track, he beat Hong Kong by nine
lengths. Since his last race, Jerkens has had four good breeze works
from this horse.

Grand Reserve #2 (ML 5-2) will be Reel Legend's biggest threat.
Although this horse just broke his maiden August 6, where he ran a 96
Beyer, he is by the great turf sire Theatrical. And having trainer
Billy Mott and jockey J.D. Bailey as his connections automatically puts
him in the running.

In his debut December 4 2004, Grand Reserve ran third losing by a
length, after breaking from the difficult 12 post position. He was also
checked coming down the stretch, which might have cost him the win.
Since August 6, Mott has had some good works from this colt. September
4 he had a bullet work; September 19 he breezed 6 furlongs over a good
surface. This tells me he may also be able to run on the dirt.

The horse to wrap up the Trifecta will be Christophe Clement's Cresson
(not a Key Horse pick), with Edgar Prado up. He'll be using Lasix for
the first time. He's had 11 starts in France and has finished in the
money five times.

Best of luck today and always to everyone. To your Wealth!

-- KO Jim

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