03 Sep 2005 10:38:01
00
Simple Question About $$

x-no-archive: yes

Horses that are heavy favorites often come in first, second or third. People
I know turn their nose up at getting 10 cents back, but that's a 5% return,
not bad for a day's work. Here's the problem I'm trying to overcome. If you
lose $2 on just one race, you have to win 20 races at 10 cents each just to
recover it. Is it possible to average a profit (however small) over a long
period of time? I'm sure I'm not the first person to ask this question.







03 Sep 2005 10:53:56
ellis_jay
Re: Simple Question About $$

00 wrote:
> x-no-archive: yes
>
> Horses that are heavy favorites often come in first, second or third.

Win about a third of the time.

> People I know turn their nose up at getting 10 cents back, but that's
> a 5% return, not bad for a day's work.

I hear tell that grocery stores shoot for that kind of return.


> Here's the problem I'm trying
> to overcome. If you lose $2 on just one race, you have to win 20
> races at 10 cents each just to recover it. Is it possible to average
> a profit (however small) over a long period of time? I'm sure I'm
> not the first person to ask this question.

I saw my sister in law almost pee her pants in glee because she won 20
cents. To some it is about winning and not how much is won. To others
(such as yours truly), I want the grand slam home run. Handicapping is hard
work and time consuming. I won't play all the races on the card, but
rather, pick and choose which ones I may want to play. Often it is just one
or two races-or maybe 3 or 4. But never the whole card, unless it is the
BC. You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races-insiders and racing
luck won't let you.

--

Their ethics are a short summary of police ordinances: for them the
most important thing is to be a useful member of the state, and to air
their opinions in the club of an evening; they have never felt the
homesickness for something unknown and far away, nor the depths which
consists in being nothing at all. ___________Soren Kierkegaard

Ellis_jay




03 Sep 2005 19:09:00
[email protected]
Re: Simple Question About $$

>> Here's the problem I'm trying to overcome. If you
lose $2 on just one race, you have to win 20 races at 10 cents each
just to recover it. Is it possible to average a profit (however small)
over a long period of time? >>

No. If there was a way to average a profit by blindly betting a
favorite or betting every horse in the race, the tracks wouldn't be in
business and all the bettors would be rich. The only situation that
assures you a small profit involves an abnormally large amount of money
being bet to show on a heavy favorite creating an arbitrage scenario -
but it occurs very infrequently and the profit potential is small and
limited. Otherwise, the only way to make money is to either get lucky
or be a good handicapper.

The thing to remember is that the odds factor in the track's takeout,
so a horse that is even money hasn't actually been bet in a way that
indicates the public believes he has a 50% chance of winning. For
simplicity sake - assume the win pool takeout is 20% (it's usually a
touch less). If there is $100,000 total in the win pool, a horse that
has $40,000 bet to win will go off at even money (since there is
$80,000 to pay off after the track's take of $20,000). So the track
will pay a 50% return but the public is indicating that the horse
really only has a 40% chance of winning (40k out of 100k bet to win) -
thus you will theoretically win only 40% of the time when betting even
money shots to win and get a 50% return when you win instead of the 3/2
payoff that you would need to break even). If you bet $2 to win on 5
even money shots and 2 of them win (40%), you will get back a total of
$8 for the $10 that you bet. The $2 loss works out to 20% - the
track's takeout.

ANY random betting system like that figures to lose an amount
equivalent to the track's takeout over the long-term. The only way to
improve on that (aside from the rare exceptions) is via
handicapping/intelligence.



03 Sep 2005 23:02:40
KBH
Re: Simple Question About $$

> Horses that are heavy favorites often come in first, second or third.
> People
> I know turn their nose up at getting 10 cents back, but that's a 5%
> return,
> not bad for a day's work. Here's the problem I'm trying to overcome. If
> you
> lose $2 on just one race, you have to win 20 races at 10 cents each just
> to
> recover it. Is it possible to average a profit (however small) over a
> long
> period of time? I'm sure I'm not the first person to ask this question.
>

To answer the question from a math viewpoint, it may not matter what odds
level the bettor targets as long as the bettor knows what is required for
success at the targeted odds level.

And so KBH has a development and algorithm for 'Percentage for
Profitability' .

For P% profit level and D odds to one:

RequiredPercentageCorrectBets = (P + 100) / (D + 1) .


Here is a link to notice of KBH development:

http://www.kbhscape.com/turf.htm




04 Sep 2005 03:59:18
ron
Re: Simple Question About $$


[email protected] wrote:

> <snip>
> the tracks wouldn't be in
> business and all the bettors would be rich.
<snip >

you're really fucking dumb....
...the track don't care if you win or lose!
they take 16% or 17% to as much as 25% from your wager before the race
is RUN.

Ron



04 Sep 2005 05:22:41
Re: Simple Question About $$

Us oldtimers have seen these bettors who salavitate over huge odds on
favs willing to take a very small price for "sure" winners. They are
soon gone!



04 Sep 2005 15:42:51
Re: Simple Question About $$

ron wrote:
> [email protected] wrote:
>
>
>><snip>
>>the tracks wouldn't be in
>>business and all the bettors would be rich.
>
> <snip>
>
> you're really fucking dumb....
> ...the track don't care if you win or lose!
> they take 16% or 17% to as much as 25% from your wager before the race
> is RUN.
>
> Ron
>

Ever heard of a minus pool?


04 Sep 2005 11:13:01
00
Re: Simple Question About $$

x-no-archive: yes

I got the same results that your equation did

I heard the favorite comes in first 30% of the time. Let's say the favorite
goes off at 3/1. That means 30% of the time you win $3 and 70% of the time
you lose $1. The expected value is.....

$3 X 30% minus $1 X 70% = $0.20

Twenty cents on each dollar bet, that's great! Here's the problem. I had
trouble finding favorites with odds that high AT POST TIME. If you drop the
favorite to 2/1 you lose $0.10 on each dollar. In that case you'd put -10
into your equation.

Which makes me agree with Wolf. Sure you could bet a lot of money on a
heavy favorite, but if the odds are too low, you won't offset your
inevitable losses. A favorite that pays ten cents isn't a "sure thing".



"KBH" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:[email protected]
> > Horses that are heavy favorites often come in first, second or third.
> > People
> > I know turn their nose up at getting 10 cents back, but that's a 5%
> > return,
> > not bad for a day's work. Here's the problem I'm trying to overcome. If
> > you
> > lose $2 on just one race, you have to win 20 races at 10 cents each just
> > to
> > recover it. Is it possible to average a profit (however small) over a
> > long
> > period of time? I'm sure I'm not the first person to ask this question.
> >
>
> To answer the question from a math viewpoint, it may not matter what odds
> level the bettor targets as long as the bettor knows what is required for
> success at the targeted odds level.
>
> And so KBH has a development and algorithm for 'Percentage for
> Profitability' .
>
> For P% profit level and D odds to one:
>
> RequiredPercentageCorrectBets = (P + 100) / (D + 1) .
>
>
> Here is a link to notice of KBH development:
>
> http://www.kbhscape.com/turf.htm
>
>




04 Sep 2005 18:00:30
fundoc
Re: Simple Question About $$


<[email protected] > wrote in message
news:%[email protected]
> ron wrote:
> > [email protected] wrote:
> >
> >
> >><snip>
> >>the tracks wouldn't be in
> >>business and all the bettors would be rich.
> >
> > <snip>
> >
> > you're really fucking dumb....
> > ...the track don't care if you win or lose!
> > they take 16% or 17% to as much as 25% from your wager before the race
> > is RUN.
> >
> > Ron
> >
>
> Ever heard of a minus pool?

"No. If there was a way to average a profit by blindly betting a favorite or
betting every horse in the race, the tracks wouldn't be in business and all the
bettors would be rich."

How are you going to have a minus pool when everybody's "betting every horse in
the race"?



04 Sep 2005 14:05:21
KBH
Re: Simple Question About $$

> I got the same results that your equation did
> I heard the favorite comes in first 30% of the time. Let's say the
> favorite
> goes off at 3/1. That means 30% of the time you win $3 and 70% of the time
> you lose $1. The expected value is.....
> $3 X 30% minus $1 X 70% = $0.20
> Twenty cents on each dollar bet, that's great! Here's the problem. I had
> trouble finding favorites with odds that high AT POST TIME. If you drop
> the
> favorite to 2/1 you lose $0.10 on each dollar. In that case you'd put -10
> into your equation.
>

------------------------------------------------------

That's an interesting view.

At 3 to 1 and a 30% correct bet result the gain is 3 * 3 while the loss is 1
* 7 for an overall gain of 2 .

At 2 to 1 and a 30% correct bet result the gain is 2 * 3 while the loss is 1
* 7 for an overall loss of -1 .

-------------------------------------------------------

Well in the first case the required percentage of correct bets for a 20%
overall profit is (20 + 100) / (3 + 1) or 30% (as expected from the given
example).

In the second case the required percentage of correct bets for a 20% overall
profit is (20 + 100) / (2 + 1) or 40% (taking a different track from the
example).

Now in the first case again the required percentage of correct bets for
break-even is (0 + 100) / (3 + 1) or 25%.

In the second case again the required percentage of correct bets for
break-even is (0 + 100) / (2 + 1) or 33%.

Leaving math and going to strategy and statistical result:

Now 3 to 1 entries do not win at greater than 25% of the time but they
probably do win about 25% of the time...

And 2 to 1 entries do not win at greater than 33% of the time but they
probaly do win about 33% of the time...

So profit requires selection of opportunity...

And there are selection strategies that are possibly profitable. (For
instance favorite entered by top meet trainer might be profitable or
favorite riden by top meet jockey might be profitable.)

And there are blanket strategies that are recognized as being slightly
profitable. The problem is that the profit is slight and the result might
depend on long term time frames to catch up. And you can take a set of track
results and look for them...




05 Sep 2005 00:37:19
[email protected]
Re: Simple Question About $$

>>you're really fucking dumb....
...the track don't care if you win or lose!
they take 16% or 17% to as much as 25% from your wager before the race
is RUN.<<

I'm being called "really fucking dumb" by Captain Obvious over here who
completely misread the thread and is instead using this opportunity to
explain to us the concept of the takeout. Absolutely priceless!

I'll be nice and explain it in terms that you might be able to follow:
IF there was a way for EVERY bettor to make money, THEN the tracks
WOULDN'T be making money! The reason why ALL bettors can't make money
is BECAUSE OF THE TAKEOUT!! Make sense?



05 Sep 2005 00:46:36
[email protected]
Re: Simple Question About $$

>>I heard the favorite comes in first 30% of the time. Let's say the favorite
goes off at 3/1. That means 30% of the time you win $3 and 70% of the
time
you lose $1. The expected value is.....

$3 X 30% minus $1 X 70% = $0.20

Twenty cents on each dollar bet, that's great! >>

The thing is - that 30% number (actually more like 33%) is an overall
win percentage for favorites and reflects favorites at all odds levels
(ie - everything from 1-9 to 4-1). Logically, favorites at shorter
prices will have a higher winning percentage than favorites at longer
prices. 1-5 favorites win far more often than 7-2 favorites do. The
average closing price of a favorite is well under 3-1 so a 3-1 favorite
has an average winning percentage below the overall average of 33%..