26 Feb 2004 18:15:12
Danzig
patterns

I get a kick sometimes with folks who follow trainer patterns. A RETRO
active approach to handicapping which, I must admit, works sometimes.

What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?/ If this guy
is good with fillies, maybe he has a barn full of them THIS season and
may never have that again. Uses jockey Smith for his two year olds?
Maybe it is because the OWNER likes the rider....how do we know??

Horses run races, trainers keep them fit but don't RUN.

Tim Yatcak


26 Feb 2004 18:53:58
Bob M
Re: patterns

We keep debating this under different subject lines and while it is true the
trainers do not run the races the horses do. The trainers set the training
schedule and also use races not as a race themselves with top horses but as
further training to thier main objective. You have to ask yourself is this
the race the horse was pointed to? Why do you think Baffart and Lucas win
so many triple crown races they don't just prepare the horse to run its best
race every race they try to get a maximum effort for maximum gain. I mean
sometimes a trianer has to know that a horse is going to lose before the
saddle goes on. Yea sure the horse may run great and the best may not and
it may happen to win. After all when they lose 4/5 they are still considered
a great trainer. Yet at certain times a trainer EXPECTS to win. Meanwhile
the dedicated handicapper can at time expect a trainer to pull off a win.
Combining this with trip handicapping and knowing a few other trainers in
the race you say hmmm --BOB
"Danzig" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:QIq%[email protected]
> I get a kick sometimes with folks who follow trainer patterns. A RETRO
> active approach to handicapping which, I must admit, works sometimes.
>
> What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?/ If this guy
> is good with fillies, maybe he has a barn full of them THIS season and
> may never have that again. Uses jockey Smith for his two year olds?
> Maybe it is because the OWNER likes the rider....how do we know??
>
> Horses run races, trainers keep them fit but don't RUN.
>
> Tim Yatcak




27 Feb 2004 00:27:23
Danzig
Re: patterns

Bob M wrote:

The trainers set the training
> schedule and also use races not as a race themselves with top horses but as
> further training to thier main objective. You have to ask yourself is this
> the race the horse was pointed to?

Never do ask that. NEVER
Why do you think Baffart and Lucas win
> so many triple crown races they don't just prepare the horse to run its best
> race every race they try to get a maximum effort for maximum gain. I mean
> sometimes a trianer has to know that a horse is going to lose before the
> saddle goes on. Yea sure the horse may run great and the best may not

Horse shows if it can do it long before the trainer tips his hand. Or I
wouldn't know if he had anyway because I never look at the trainer's
being anymore than competent.


27 Feb 2004 07:14:31
Fager
Re: patterns


"Danzig" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:QIq%[email protected]
> I get a kick sometimes with folks who follow trainer patterns. A RETRO
> active approach to handicapping which, I must admit, works sometimes.
>
> What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?/ If this guy
> is good with fillies, maybe he has a barn full of them THIS season and
> may never have that again. Uses jockey Smith for his two year olds?
> Maybe it is because the OWNER likes the rider....how do we know??

Tim,

Certain successful trainer patterns are hard to refute while many others are
just statistical anomalies. Frankel using Bailey in Grade Ones has been a
flat bet winner for over two years. Mandella has a workout pattern with
2YO's that tips off debut winners that has been successful since he's been
in California.

Amoss, Asmussen, Pletcher - All with large barns and multiple years of over
20% winners, 30%+ in many categories, why woudn't they repeat what's been
successful from one horse to another?

In the other direction, how about the many UNSUCCESSFUL trainer patterns? If
there'a a large enough sample, I'm skeptical of anything a trainer tries if
his success rate is less than 5%. Especially at a short price.

As far as being a RETRO active approach to handicapping - Couldn't one
describe most of handicapping that way? Handicappers are making a forward
opinion based on their interpretation of past data. And some of that opinion
may be that the trainer has had success with a similar move in the past.

Fager




01 Mar 2004 13:33:35
fundoc
Re: patterns


"Danzig" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:QIq%[email protected]

> What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?

A "one time thing" isn't a pattern. A pattern is something that happens over and
over again. E.g., you invariably post moronic observations, thinking them
epiphanic. That's a pattern.







01 Mar 2004 15:20:03
Danzig
Re: patterns

fundoc wrote:
> "Danzig" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:QIq%[email protected]
>
>
>>What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?

A PATTERN (without multiple episodes, something does NOT become a
pattern). In this regard, the intent was a season.

>
> A "one time thing" isn't a pattern. A pattern is something that happens over and
> over again. E.g., you invariably post moronic observations, thinking them
> epiphanic. That's a pattern.
This is a forum. Observations that work for one person are shared with
others that's all.

Handicapping and wagering (as I have said many many times) are different
for each person. NO CORRECT ANSWERS. I find trainer studies a waste of
valuable time and have said as much.

Tim Yatcak


01 Mar 2004 11:28:44
lsj7
Re: patterns

Bob M wrote:
> The trainers
> set the training schedule and also use races not as a race themselves
> with top horses but as further training to thier main objective.

Let me share an e-mail exchange with you about this very subject:

"In a message dated 2/28/2004 12:29:34 PM Eastern Standard Time,
[email protected] writes:
Carl Cooper owns Hollytree farm and trains. But Hollytree has no entry but
Cooper has a horse entered in 4th called Ruettiger owned by R. Gary
Patrick--is this a hidden hollytree farm horse? I have found when Cooper
loads up he is a major threat--but here he has only one horse and a CLAIMING
race--workout or he wants to sell it...is what I am thinking what ideas you
have?"

Coopie writes back:
"I did play outlandish lady in the wps contest, but the horse seems like a
chronic loser. I believe it is 0-21.Hard to know whats going on with the
horse in the 4th, but it has had one race over the tampa strip which is
usually good. The horse looks well spotted here. Jet legacy looks like the
horse to beat."

After further thought, Coopie wrote me back with this :
"also on ruettigier, the jock trainer combination has resulted in 0 ITM from
eight starts together. The thing that I see the horse has going for it is,
it has the third highest earnings per start at sprinting distances. It has
4 wins and 3 seconds in 20 starts while sprinting, a nice record. As I say,
the horse is well placed here so it has a legitamate shot."

I did not have the Form for this race and just perused equibase entry's and
cross-checked in pedigreequerydotcom. I knew that Coopie's home track was
Tampa so I figured who better to go to for advice? It seemed iffy to bet
the horse because of Cooper's pattern, but patterns can fool you. I will
sick with this pattern for some trainers (Stanley Roberts, Norman, and a few
others) but with a little well advised insight provided by Coopie one can
break out of pattern betting. Thanx Coopie.

Tampa Bay Downs - February 28th, 2004 - Race 4

8 Ruettiger 34.20 13.40 7.60
1 Gatebuster 5.00 3.60
11 Jet Legacy 4.20

*vbg*

P.s. The next day Carl Cooper provided the same scenario....but the horse is
still running I think.
*G*


P.P.S.
For those using outlook express who do not have this link
http://home.in.tum.de/~jain/software/oe-quotefix/
will not be able to see the big green buck toothed smiley faced I posted
above.








--

Cherish, therefore, the spirit of our people, and keep alive their
attention. .If once they become inattentive to the public affairs, you
and I, and congress and Assemblies, Judges and governors, shall all
become wolves.

_________Jefferson to Carrington 1787

lsj7





02 Mar 2004 03:30:10
fundoc
Re: patterns


"Danzig" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:[email protected]

> fundoc wrote:
> > "Danzig" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> > news:QIq%[email protected]
> >
> >
> >>What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?
>
> A PATTERN (without multiple episodes, something does NOT become a
> pattern). In this regard, the intent was a season.
> > A "one time thing" isn't a pattern. A pattern is something that happens over
and
> > over again. E.g., you invariably post moronic observations, thinking them
> > epiphanic. That's a pattern.
> This is a forum. Observations that work for one person are shared with
> others that's all.
>
> Handicapping and wagering (as I have said many many times) are different
> for each person. NO CORRECT ANSWERS.

No correct answers; lots of incorrect answers though.

> I find trainer studies a waste of
> valuable time and have said as much.

Uh huh. And I'm saying you're studying the wrong trainer patterns.

R Dutrow's horses have finished first or second ~ 75 % of the time at the
current Aqueduct meet. Powerful trainer pattern.

Felix Monserrate's horses win one race every 11 years. Powerful trainer pattern.

Chris Clemente wins on turf, loses on dirt. Powerful trainer pattern.










>
> Tim Yatcak




05 Mar 2004 15:26:54
Danzig
Re: patterns

Danzig wrote:

> I get a kick sometimes with folks who follow trainer patterns. A RETRO
> active approach to handicapping which, I must admit, works sometimes.
>
> What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?/ If this guy
> is good with fillies, maybe he has a barn full of them THIS season and
> may never have that again. Uses jockey Smith for his two year olds?
> Maybe it is because the OWNER likes the rider....how do we know??
>
> Horses run races, trainers keep them fit but don't RUN.
>
> Tim Yatcak
Semantics aside, the TIME involved here is the WASTE I was trying to
relate. Too much time spent for the $$$ involved that one MIGHT receive
at the mutuels.

Tim


06 Mar 2004 01:13:38
F.H.
Re: patterns

Danzig wrote:
>
> Danzig wrote:
>
> > I get a kick sometimes with folks who follow trainer patterns. A RETRO
> > active approach to handicapping which, I must admit, works sometimes.
> >
> > What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?/ If this guy
> > is good with fillies, maybe he has a barn full of them THIS season and
> > may never have that again. Uses jockey Smith for his two year olds?
> > Maybe it is because the OWNER likes the rider....how do we know??
> >
> > Horses run races, trainers keep them fit but don't RUN.
> >
> > Tim Yatcak
> Semantics aside, the TIME involved here is the WASTE I was trying to
> relate. Too much time spent for the $$$ involved that one MIGHT receive
> at the mutuels.

The time spent can be organized the same way reading the Form might be.
Same for sire info. My experience is that it is most useful in exotics
where you need to cover more than one horse but don't want to go
unnecessarily deep or for those that play trifecta's, some trainers are
better in the money bets than win depending on the class and distance.
Couple of good payoffs might change your mind.

Frank


11 Jun 2004 22:50:09
Tom Smith
Re: patterns

Humor yourself all you want but trainer patterns are useful, not as a
stand alone handicapping factor a la Ed Bain, but as an secondary
filter in helping to separate closely-matched contenders.

"What if the pattern..." Well, what if my aunt had balls? We all know
the answer to that one. Whatever works for you is all I can say in
response without going into a longwinded speech as to the merits of
trainer patterns.

Tom

On Thu, 26 Feb 2004 18:15:12 GMT, Danzig <[email protected] > wrote:

>I get a kick sometimes with folks who follow trainer patterns. A RETRO
>active approach to handicapping which, I must admit, works sometimes.
>
>What if the pattern you've uncovered is a one time thing?/ If this guy
>is good with fillies, maybe he has a barn full of them THIS season and
>may never have that again. Uses jockey Smith for his two year olds?
>Maybe it is because the OWNER likes the rider....how do we know??
>
>Horses run races, trainers keep them fit but don't RUN.
>
>Tim Yatcak